Press Release - APRIL 03, 2018

Best’s Special Report: Predictive Analytics Aids Performance, Balances Underwriting Cycles for Commercial Lines Insurers

 Michael Lagomarsino, CFA, FRM
Senior Director
+1 908 439 2200, ext. 5810

David Blades, CPCU
Senior Industry Analyst,
Industry Research & Analytics
+1 908 439 2200, ext. 5422
Christopher Sharkey
Manager, Public Relations
(908) 439 2200, ext. 5159

Jim Peavy
Director, Public Relations
(908) 439 2200, ext. 5644


OLDWICK - APRIL 03, 2018
While the presence of predictive analytics in the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) industry has become increasingly prevalent, its specific use has varied by company and line of business, according to a new A.M. Best special report.

The Best’s Special Report, titled,Predictive Analytics Aids Performance, Balances Underwriting Cycles for Commercial Lines Insurers,” states predictive analytics and related tools such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data and predictive modeling often focus on the same concept—using statistics and probabilities to predict outcomes. Proper use of predictive analytics helps organizations improve their effectiveness and bottom line results. One initial obstacle to its widespread use was the limited ability to obtain enough data to create truly effective models. Predictive analytics within the P/C industry started with personal lines applications because there was much more data available on individuals.

The commercial side of the industry has presented greater challenges given its size, complexity, diversity of risks, and overall lack of quality data historically. Nevertheless, over the past decade or more, A.M. Best has witnessed changes within the commercial lines segment that have enabled companies to be more responsive to shifts in market dynamics. Enhanced enterprise risk management (ERM) processes have helped companies improve decision-making throughout different disciplines. For example, despite catastrophe losses within the commercial lines segment nearly doubling in 2017 from multiple events, the losses were most often within stated risk tolerances and fell within company catastrophe retentions, reflecting the progression within and appropriateness of commercial lines insurers’ ERM programs. Greater utilization of data and analytics has led to better insights into risk selection—when and where to grow or shrink—and the establishment of technical pricing while expanding into other areas, such as claims management.

“The workers’ compensation line appears to be the furthest along in terms of the impact of predictive analytics,” said Michael Lagomarsino, senior director. “While most workers’ compensation insurers have adopted predictive analytics for risk selection and underwriting, a growing number are fighting back against rising severity by using predictive models to lower claim and fraud costs. A.M. Best believes this has played a role in tempering the workers’ compensation underwriting cycle over time.”

A.M. Best also believes a company’s ability to be innovative in developing better products and services for their clients and providing them in a faster and more efficient manner will become more critical in the future. Gauging these capabilities within the evaluation of a company’s overall financial strength is becoming increasingly important. Insurers that are nimble when it comes to technology and can respond quickly to changing market dynamics will be better-positioned for future trends and developments.

To access the full copy of this special report, please visit .

A.M. Best is the world’s oldest and most authoritative insurance rating and information source.