AM Best


Best’s Special Report: U.S. Mortality Rates Starting to Rise


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George Hansen
Senior Industry Research Analyst
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Jim Peavy
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

OLDWICK - AUGUST 15, 2017 02:17 PM (EDT)
A.M. Best believes a recent trend of rising U.S. mortality rates could have negative implications for companies exposed to lower-income markets, according to a new special report.

The Best’s Special Report, “Mortality Rates Start Rising,” notes that two recent studies show deterioration in mortality by age group and by age and gender. In particular, the younger age groups appear to be driving the overall increase in mortality in 2015. Older age mortality continues to improve, albeit more gradually

To confirm trends in the U.S. life insured population, A.M. Best reviewed mortality metrics as reflected in insurers’ annual statutory statements. Tabular mortality trends for ordinary and group life insurance and by size of ordinary life policies, as well as claims frequency by volume were used to measure insured mortality trends. Overall, A.M. Best notes that several companies, particularly in the mid- to lower-income marketplace, have experienced earnings pressures due to increasing mortality in 2015 and 2016.

Although data indicates a slight decrease in overall mortality in 2016, claims frequency continued to increase in 2016, both of which are trends that could lead to a slowdown in future mortality improvements. A.M. Best believes that the insured population has not yet been significantly affected by these emerging population trends, especially given that younger age groups constitute a fairly small percentage of the insured population.

To access the full copy of this special report, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=264642 .

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