Best’s News & Research Service - November 09, 2018 10:56 AM (EST)
Best’s Briefing: Cancellation of Mexico City Airport Project Triggers Negative Signal for the Peso and Markets
- November 09, 2018 10:56 AM (EST)
Mexico City //BestWire// - While a decision to cancel the completion of a multi-billion dollar government airport project in Mexico City has placed pressure on the peso exchange rate and the equity and fixed-income markets, it will not have a material impact on A.M. Best’s assessment of the country’s risk level.
Mexico President-Elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced the cancellation of the estimated USD 13 billion project on Oct. 30, a step that has also increased pressure on the country’s sovereign ratings. In a new special report, A.M. Best notes that it currently classifies Mexico as a Country Risk Tier 3 country, demonstrating a low level of economic risk and a moderate level of political and financial system risk.
According to the Best’s Briefing, titled, “Cancellation of Mexico City Airport Project - Negative Signal for the Peso and Markets,” there may be added uncertainty in Mexico’s important surety segment in the event of similar developments in other projects. Mexico’s insurance industry depends highly on the liquidity of sovereign bonds to match its liabilities—government-related securities as described by the regulator CNSF (Comisión Nacional de Seguros y Fianzas)—which constituted around 64.6% of the insurance industry’s investment portfolio as of June 2018. With potentially difficult times ahead for Mexico’s macroeconomy, the country’s interest rates could rise to match rate hikes in the United States.
Additionally, an increased perception of risk in Mexico could also drive the Interbank Equilibrium Interest Rate (TIIE) higher, diminishing the value of the bonds—deterioration that would be reflected in the surplus or results of the country’s insurance companies, depending on their liquidity needs.
A.M. Best will closely monitor the impact of rising interest rates on the valuations of companies’ investment portfolios, but given the industry’s adequate capitalization and good liquidity, rating changes seem unlikely over the short term.
To access the full copy of this Best’s Briefing, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=279928 .
A.M. Best is a global rating agency and information provider with a unique focus on the insurance industry.