38

Best’s Rankings

US Auto Physical Damage – Top Writers by State, Canada and US Territories – 2024 Edition

Ranked by 2023 direct premiums written.

($ Thousands)

BEST’S REVIEW

•

OCTOBER 

Writer

Direct

4

13.7

0

0

Berkshire Hathaway Ins 11.6

CT30294471,553,6301.012.873.10.439.560.5Berkshire Hathaway Ins 14.9Progressive Ins Group 12.

2

DE4848408433,3120.316.979.40.329.370.8State Farm Group 28.6Berkshire Hathaway Ins 14.1

DC5252318215,8990.110.891.20.323.276.8Berkshire Hathaway Ins 36.0State Farm Group 18.

2

FL3355210,031,3596.524.569.60.939.061.0Progressive Ins Group 22.1Berkshire Hathaway Ins 21.3

GA886464,861,3083.212.373.60.337.362.7State Farm Group 22.6Progressive Ins Group 17.8

HI4745216458,9980.38.277.50.623.376.7Berkshire Hathaway Ins 25.8State Farm Group 19.5

ID3938441820,7070.513.869.90.331.668.4State Farm Group 14.4

Progressive Ins Group 12.8

IL666275,460,1143.615.773.70.433.466.6State Farm Group 28.8Allstate Ins Group 10.

8

IN21216012,782,7551.816.573.80.343.756.3State Farm Group 21.0Progressive Ins Group 14.

6

IA29284961,610,3081.015.372.30.256.044.0Progressive Ins Group 18.6State Farm Group 1

7.9

KS32325011,454,5420.913.467.90.236.064.0State Farm Group 18.5Progressive Ins Group 14.

1

KY27275011,677,9661.118.179.70.430.669.4State Farm Group 23.1KY Farm Bureau Group 19.3

LA24254432,412,3951.619.665.70.330.669.4State Farm Group 30.7Progressive Ins Group 20.

9

ME4443363583,6570.414.870.60.445.254.8Progressive Ins Group 15.9State Farm Group 14.

2

MD18175192,965,4081.914.576.70.334.865.2Berkshire Hathaway Ins 21.3State Farm Group 1

7.9

MA15143453,391,6772.215.969.60.666.034.0MAPFRE North America Group 18.5Berkshire Hathaway Ins 12.8

MI774965,270,5783.418.981.50.349.750.3Progressive Ins Group 17.5State Farm Group 17.

2

MN19204892,894,3331.919.977.90.344.056.0State Farm Group 22.5Progressive Ins Group 17.

2

MS33334511,349,5960.912.574.80.329.370.7State Farm Group 24.4Progressive Ins Group 15.

1

MO17185572,975,8581.916.973.20.231.668.4State Farm Group 22.4Progressive Ins Group 15.

0

MT4040383663,7670.411.361.30.238.361.7State Farm Group 20.5Progressive Ins Group 17.7

NE36364511,055,5620.713.666.20.247.452.6State Farm Group 18.2Progressive Ins Group 14.

2

NV35354871,150,3420.713.887.40.430.869.2State Farm Group 17.8

Progressive Ins Group 16.4

NH4142377640,3040.414.966.80.342.757.3Progressive Ins Group 15.5State Farm Group 13.

8

NJ12124963,675,6122.414.076.70.326.973.1Berkshire Hathaway Ins 20.5Progressive Ins Group 13.

5

NM3737459906,7630.617.773.20.432.167.9State Farm Group 23.5Progressive Ins Group 18.5

NY444916,921,3924.513.676.80.333.166.9Berkshire Hathaway Ins 26.1State Farm Group 13.

7

NC995024,859,9483.214.566.20.335.065.0Allstate Ins Group 17.3State Farm Group 13.

6

ND4547404464,4380.313.462.20.248.651.5Progressive Ins Group 18.4State Farm Group 11.

1

OH10106224,619,8073.017.373.40.350.549.5State Farm Group 19.7Progressive Ins Group 16.

3

OK26264921,986,3061.314.777.10.432.667.4State Farm Group 24.2Progressive Ins Group 15.

7

OR28304871,640,7351.120.972.10.431.568.5State Farm Group 21.2Progressive Ins Group 16.

1

PA556366,180,7474.016.772.80.349.250.8State Farm Group 19.7Erie Ins Group 14.

5

RI4646370461,1310.311.374.50.443.057.0Progressive Ins Group 24.4Berkshire Hathaway Ins 13.0

SC25245382,386,3661.613.670.90.335.065.0State Farm Group 24.0Progressive Ins Group 17.

9

SD4344396588,1800.416.463.80.350.749.3State Farm Group 17.1Progressive Ins Group 15.5

TN16165883,289,9192.117.973.10.631.768.3State Farm Group 20.7TN Farmers Ins Cos 15

.6

TX2262715,962,01410.419.772.30.436.963.1Progressive Ins Group 18.1State Farm Group 1

7.2

UT34344961,321,8320.914.370.80.338.961.1State Farm Group 14.9Progressive Ins Group 12.

5

VT5151342298,8240.214.672.90.252.447.6Progressive Ins Group 19.6Berkshire Hathaway Ins 13.1

VA11115793,757,7592.416.069.70.334.265.8State Farm Group 16.3Berkshire Hathaway Ins 14.9

WA20195072,879,4441.914.384.00.432.567.5State Farm Group 16.5Progressive Ins Group 13.

7

WV3839410825,8250.516.270.50.342.257.8State Farm Group 29.6Erie Ins Group 15.

9

WI22225492,551,8061.720.773.90.454.445.6Progressive Ins Group 18.3Amer Family Ins Group 14.5

WY4949371390,0660.313.666.40.231.468.6State Farm Group 20.7Progressive Ins Group 16.9

Guam 53532351,9870.00.981.33.169.330.7USAA Gr

oup 30.7Chung Kuo Ins Co, Ltd GUB 25.6

Puerto Rico424160634,5820.49.350.00.565.934.1Universal Ins Group of Puerto Rico 39.9Coop de Seguros Multiples PR 33.9

U.S. Virgin Is.56553027,3450.014.142.31.775.724.3Guardian Ins Group 31.2U

SAA Group 24.3

Canada55542138,0490.010.275.41.471.528.5CNA Ins Cos 36.8Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 25

.3

Other 54564845,5990.0110.956.32.39.190.9Berkshire Hathaway Ins 75.1U

SAA Group 15.9

N. Mariana Is.575783,2010.0-23.119.73.5100.00.0Century Ins Group 45.9First Net Ins Co

15.1

Grand Total1,359$153,592,824100.016.874.20.437.162.9State Farm Group 17.6Progressive Ins Group

14.0

ALR

1

DDCCE

2

1

ALR: Adjusted loss ratio is direct losses incurred divided by the difference between direct premium earned and dividends paid

to policyholder.

SAA Group 16.6

2

2

DDCCE: Direct defense and cost containment expense ratio is the former allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) ratio.

3

Insurers that distribute primarily through independent agents.

4

Insurers that distribute primarily through a direct-selling system or an exclusive agency system.

Note: Data for some companies in this report has been received from the NAIC.

Source:

- State/Line (P/C Lines) - P/C, U.S.; data as of July 15, 2024.

Agency

3

Writer

AL2323530$2,434,2431.615.868.70.226.173.9State Farm Group 25.4Alfa Ins Group

AK5050270300,1000.212.666.80.318.082.0State Farm Group 28.7U

AZ14155923,513,4322.321.169.80.432.767.3State Farm Group 17.3Progressive Ins Group 16.

AR31314911,503,4621.015.885.30.326.573.5State Farm Group 24.4Progressive Ins Group 13.

CA1153218,807,78312.215.680.10.529.270.8State Farm Group 13.0

CO13135203,549,7522.318.785.50.328.471.6State Farm Group 21.6Progressive Ins Group 13.

% Change

in

Premiums

State

2023

Rank

2022

Rank

No of

Cos

Direct

Premiums

Written

% of

Grand

TotalLeading Writer

% Market

ShareSecond Leader

% Market

Share

Market Share

Best’s Rankings: Auto

40

Best’s Rankings

US Total All Auto Lines – Top Writers by State, Canada and US Territories – 2024 Edition

Ranked by 2023 direct premiums written.

($ Thousands)

No of

Writer

4

7

3.9

3.6

1

ALR: Adjusted loss ratio is direct losses incurred divided by the difference between direct premium earned and dividends paid

to policyholder.

Direct

5.3

2

DDCCE: Direct defense and cost containment expense ratio is the former allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) ratio.

Cos

13.3

.9

3

Insurers that distribute primarily through independent agents.

4

Insurers that distribute primarily through a direct-selling system or an exclusive agency system.

Note: Data for some companies in this report has been received from the NAIC.

Source:

- State/ Line (P/C Lines)-P/C, U.S.; data as of July 15, 2024.

Agency

3

Writer

AL2424636$5,522,2371.412.870.22.432.367.8State Farm Group 21.6Allstate Ins Group

AK4949380704,7780.210.169.81.623.876.2State Farm Group 26.5Berkshire Hathaway Ins 16.

AZ13137138,847,4922.316.672.71.936.963.1Progressive Ins Group 16.9State Farm Group 1

AR32325943,254,5990.913.275.11.532.667.4State Farm Group 20.6Progressive Ins Group 1

CA1165143,949,57011.510.285.93.735.164.9State Farm Group 11.1Berkshire Hathaway Ins 9

CO14156348,026,3992.113.774.11.932.767.3State Farm Group 18.5Progressive Ins Group 1

CT29285494,246,8781.110.177.72.943.456.6Berkshire Hathaway Ins 14.0Progressive Ins Group 1

3.7

DE40405351,343,8170.412.175.22.535.364.7State Farm Group 24.8Berkshire Hathaway Ins 1

3.5

DC5252430498,0760.16.479.51.728.371.7Berkshire Hathaway Ins 31.6State Farm Group 18.2

FL3367136,302,5389.519.674.94.844.155.9Progressive Ins Group 23.1Berkshire Hathaway Ins 18

.4

GA5577015,447,1434.012.279.22.740.359.7State Farm Group 20.8Progressive Ins Group 18

.1

HI45453141,024,4900.35.368.71.129.570.5Berkshire Hathaway Ins 24.1State Farm Group 18

.4

ID38385381,853,7750.511.967.21.635.764.3Progressive Ins Group 14.3State Farm Group 1

2.8

IL7774812,536,1763.312.771.82.539.260.9State Farm Group 25.4Progressive Ins Group 10

.7

IN22227306,232,9451.611.870.02.347.852.2State Farm Group 18.3Progressive Ins Group 1

5.1

IA34346093,032,8310.811.570.01.759.240.8Progressive Ins Group 19.2State Farm Group 1

5.9

KS35356122,999,6000.811.969.51.641.258.8State Farm Group 15.8Progressive Ins Group 1

5.2

KY27276334,420,0471.211.475.22.234.665.4State Farm Group 20.8KY Farm Bureau Group 1

6.3

LA20205686,614,3281.710.068.43.537.462.6State Farm Group 26.3Progressive Ins Group 2

0.2

ME44444491,208,0110.311.168.91.249.350.7Progressive Ins Group 17.7State Farm Group 1

2.7

MD17176357,472,9412.013.073.41.838.761.3Berkshire Hathaway Ins 20.0State Farm Group 1

6.8

MA15164637,728,1552.012.469.61.767.832.2MAPFRE North America Group 17.8Berkshire Hathaway Ins 12.7

MI9962111,609,1213.09.371.04.550.349.7Progressive Ins Group 19.2State Farm Group 16.

2

MN23235905,852,9391.513.272.41.647.053.1State Farm Group 20.0Progressive Ins Group 1

8.8

MS33335613,072,6700.89.171.92.135.364.7State Farm Group 20.9Progressive Ins Group 16

.1

MO21216646,565,8351.714.072.41.736.663.4State Farm Group 19.7Progressive Ins Group 1

6.0

MT41425001,308,7790.310.459.91.742.257.9Progressive Ins Group 18.9State Farm Group 1

8.3

NE37375732,147,2820.612.266.91.251.049.0State Farm Group 16.2Progressive Ins Group 1

6.0

NV30306134,199,9261.19.789.13.635.964.1Progressive Ins Group 16.7Berkshire Hathaway Ins 15

.2

NH42434701,308,4100.311.664.41.146.153.9Progressive Ins Group 15.8State Farm Group 1

2.2

NJ8862412,026,4613.112.981.84.533.266.8Berkshire Hathaway Ins 18.8Progressive Ins Group 15

.3

NM36365732,277,0820.613.669.62.637.462.6State Farm Group 19.2Progressive Ins Group 1

8.4

NY4462320,979,5325.512.785.25.137.162.9Berkshire Hathaway Ins 23.7State Farm Group 13

.8

NC101062510,097,0632.610.874.81.437.562.5Allstate Ins Group 17.1State Farm Group

12.8

ND4848499830,0820.211.363.51.153.146.9Progressive Ins Group 20.5State Farm Group 10.

0

OH111176210,062,0932.611.968.81.653.546.5State Farm Group 16.9Progressive Ins Group

16.9

OK28296114,325,3501.112.671.81.737.962.1State Farm Group 20.7Progressive Ins Group 1

6.1

OR26266044,543,5401.213.868.51.834.565.5State Farm Group 18.8Progressive Ins Group 1

7.7

PA6674613,023,9833.410.370.42.351.748.3State Farm Group 16.9Progressive Ins Group 13

.2

RI43414671,299,9060.38.871.41.548.751.3Progressive Ins Group 29.2Berkshire Hathaway Ins 12

.1

SC19196586,857,8711.813.874.31.738.561.5State Farm Group 22.0Progressive Ins Group 1

9.0

SD46474981,009,9540.313.863.61.353.746.3Progressive Ins Group 16.2State Farm Group 1

5.9

TN18187087,109,3141.914.471.31.936.263.8State Farm Group 17.8Progressive Ins Group 1

3.3

TX2278239,239,81910.318.375.22.944.655.4Progressive Ins Group 18.7State Farm Group 1

4.7

UT31316103,695,4851.014.368.52.142.557.5Progressive Ins Group 13.8State Farm Group 1

2.8

VT5151441554,9750.111.367.60.756.144.0Progressive Ins Group 20.3Berkshire Hathaway Ins 12.

4

VA12126918,917,1712.315.568.01.837.962.1Berkshire Hathaway Ins 14.9State Farm Group 1

4.7

WA16146097,653,2492.08.082.62.435.264.8State Farm Group 15.4Progressive Ins Group 14

.3

WV39395281,704,2350.410.3

67.31.346.453.6State Farm Group 25.7Erie Ins Group 15.3

WI25256485,143,4411.314.168.51.756.243.8Progressive Ins Group 18.8Amer Family Ins Group 1

3.6

WY5050466684,2800.211.164.51.137.662.5Progressive Ins Group 18.7State Farm Group 18.

3

Guam 55552983,4060.012.476.13.876.423.6USAA Gr

oup 23.6Amer Intl Group 19.7

Puerto Rico474676942,3760.20.552.00.967.332.7

Universal Ins Group of Puerto Rico 37.2Coop de Seguros Multiples PR 32.3

U.S. Virgin Is.56564358,3070.06.658.64.085.414.6Guardian Ins Group 35.6Markel Ins Group

23.6

Canada545438128,3970.0-3.117.50.470.529.5CNA Ins Cos 30.7Liberty Mutual Ins Cos

24.8

Other 535381207,7800.131.770.26.172.527.5New Horizon Ins Co 28.3Berkshire Hathaway Ins 22.0

N. Mariana Is.575786,0610.0-14.840.55.3100.00.0Century Ins Group 49.0DB Ins US Group

15.5

Grand Total1,505$382,793,005100.013.275.42.941.458.6State Farm Group 15.6Progressive Ins Group

15.1

2023

Rank

State

Leading Writer

% Market

ShareSecond Leader

% Market

Share

2022

Rank

Market Share

%

Premium

Change

Direct

Premiums

Written

% of

Grand

TotalALR

1

DDCCE

2

BEST’S REVIEW

•

OCTOBER 

Best’s Rankings: Auto

42

Best’s Rankings

US Commercial Auto – Top Writers by State, Canada and US Territories – 2024 Edition

Ranked by 2023 direct premiums written.

($ Thousands)

Agency

Direct

16.4Auto-Owners Ins Group 8.

AZ14165411,210,6071.910.070.35.078.621.5Progressive Ins Group 12.9Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 7

1

ALR: Adjusted loss ratio is direct losses incurred divided by the difference between direct premium earned and dividends paid

to policyholder.

4

AR3233473586,6280.910.063.84.582.917.1Progressive Ins Group 16.7Old Republic Ins Group 6.2

2

DDCCE: Direct defense and cost containment expense ratio is the former allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) ratio.

Writer

AK5252295108,0370.210.470.13.074.325.7Western Natl Ins Group 16.7CopperPoint Ins Group 14.

3

Insurers that distribute primarily through independent agents.

4

Insurers that distribute primarily through a direct-selling system or an exclusive agency system.

Note: Data for some companies in this report has been received from the NAIC.

Source:

- State/ Line (P/C Lines)-P/C, U.S.; data as of July 15, 2024.

3

Writer

AL2424512$923,4911.411.169.15.484.415.6Progressive Ins Group

9

8

.5

CA115357,455,43111.63.692.78.779.220.8Progressive Ins Group 12.3C

SAA Ins Group 6.7

CO19204961,113,8301.711.570.34.879.620.4Progressive Ins Group 18.6Travelers Group 5

.8

CT3131438645,5181.09.070.75.178.621.5Progressive Ins Group 12.9Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 7.4

DE4643428206,9380.32.368.44.286.813.2Great Amer P & C Ins Group 12.7Progressive Ins Group 9.8

DC545434865,2110.1-11.349.23.160.139.9State Farm Group 24.1Travelers Group 6.5

FL335395,865,1379.117.483.19.082.117.9Progressive Ins Group

24.6Auto-Owners Ins Group 8.9

GA766002,402,4903.7-4.376.95.384.315.7Progressive Ins Group

18.5Auto-Owners Ins Group 5.8

HI4948256139,3660.22.547.21.592.08.0Tokio Marine US PC Group 22.5Great Amer P & C Ins Group 11.8

ID3838413343,3870.59.561.03.976.923.1Progressive Ins Group 13.7Old Republic Ins Group 8.9

IL555782,637,9914.10.168.05.284.215.8Progressive Ins Group 10.9Travelers Group 5.6

IN13135621,228,6591.96.164.74.686.713.3Progressive Ins Group

11.4Auto-Owners Ins Group 5.

2

IA2930486653,1541.06.168.53.489.810.2Old Republic Ins Group 8.7Progressive Ins Group 8.4

KS3535466527,8050.89.264.03.982.917.2Progressive Ins Group 12.1Travelers Group 7.8

KY2729491672,6391.08.470.44.881.518.6Progressive Ins Group 10.2Travelers Group 6.5

LA18184531,134,3481.87.978.010.280.219.8Progressive Ins Group 17.3Skyward Specialty Ins Group 7

.7

ME4242355221,8640.38.760.72.684.915.1W. R. Berkley Ins Group 15.9Progressive Ins Group 11.0

MD2221506991,0921.53.963.53.083.516.5Erie Ins Group 12.2Progressive Ins Group 11.0

MA12123901,262,6972.07.759.73.088.711.3MAPFRE North America Group 12.6Safety Group 11.7

MI11115051,484,8712.36.966.86.282.917.1Auto-Owners Ins Group

8.2Progressive Ins Group 8.0

MN2323481923,6731.47.462.23.286.413.6Old Republic Ins Group 11.2Progressive Ins Group 8.2

MS3432443579,6890.91.970.95.582.018.0Progressive Ins Group 16.3Travelers Group 7.5

MO20195121,081,0321.75.970.34.780.519.5Progressive Ins Group 11.8Travelers Group 7.

8

MT3940391268,9900.410.153.53.081.118.9Progressive Ins Group 14.7Old Republic Ins Group 8.7

NE3636453432,3700.76.657.02.387.612.4Old Republic Ins Group 13.6Progressive Ins Group 10.0

NV3026479646,2891.0-9.893.57.979.320.8Progressive Ins Group 20.1Travelers Group 6.3

NH4546388208,7870.38.450.02.484.215.8W. R. Berkley Ins Group 16.9Progressive Ins Group 7.7

NJ675142,443,1753.810.783.87.275.125.0Progressive Ins Group 17.3Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 11.

9

NM3737452371,2680.615.874.47.282.018.0Progressive Ins Group 18.8Travelers Group 8.2

NY444773,822,0115.914.687.210.180.319.8Progressive Ins Group 12.4Amer Transit Ins Co 8.

5

NC10105231,609,9112.57.169.13.679.021.0Progressive Ins Group 15.6Allstate Ins Group 7.

9

ND4344399215,0030.38.850.61.786.613.4Progressive Ins Group 12.2Old Republic Ins Group 9.5

OH995831,735,6862.74.862.73.590.39.7Progressive Ins Group 15.5Cincinnati Ins Cos 7.1

OK2627468754,5511.28.462.14.379.420.6Progressive Ins Group 16.0Travelers Group 9.3

OR2828467657,0171.05.757.03.574.125.9Progressive Ins Group 16.7Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 9.8

PA885912,174,1133.4-1.262.74.890.19.9Progressive Ins Group 13.4Erie Ins Group 10.6

RI4747373172,4160.37.560.92.978.721.3Progressive Ins Group 13.0Selective Ins Group 7.4

SC2525530881,2571.49.770.84.682.417.6Progressive Ins Group

16.7Auto-Owners Ins Group 6.6

SD4445394214,5500.311.359.72.784.915.1Old Republic Ins Group 12.8Acuity, A Mutual Ins Co 8.7

TN16175671,163,9961.88.363.83.586.213.8Progressive Ins Group 13.7Travelers Group 5.

8

TX226127,263,28211.39.277.07.781.118.9Progressive Ins Group 20.6Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 6.1

UT3334465581,1430.911.968.03.881.118.9Progressive Ins Group

13.2Auto-Owners Ins Group 9.8

VT5353359101,0390.28.052.41.382.717.3Progressive Ins Group 12.7W. R. Berkley Ins Group 12.2

VA15145391,172,9821.83.861.43.783.616.4Progressive Ins Group 12.1Erie Ins Group 9.

0

WA17154781,155,2851.83.664.14.175.224.8Progressive Ins Group 17.0Liberty Mutual Ins Cos 9.

7

WV4041410229,9160.45.157.23.487.112.9Erie Ins Group 13.2Progressive Ins Group 12.8

WI21225101,010,2101.614.861.63.789.110.9Acuity, A Mutual Ins Co 7.7West Bend Ins Co 7.

0

WY4850370139,6680.210.065.32.584.715.3Progressive Ins Group 18.3Travelers Group 9.5

Guam 55552616,7250.040.753.43.5100.00.0DB Ins US Group 22.0Amer Intl Group 1

6.1

Puerto Rico413969228,9370.4-15.036.52.386.713.4Universal Ins Group of Puerto Rico 25.9MAPFRE North America Group

18.5

U.S. Virgin Is.56563515,5640.035.538.94.5100.00.0Markel Ins Group 33.3Guardian Ins Group

24.7

Canada504935128,2640.2-3.154.53.470.529.5CNA Ins Cos 30.7Liberty Mutual Ins Cos

24.8

Other 515173120,9010.215.456.37.1100.00.0New Horizon Ins Co 44.2Natl Unity Ins Co 26.8

N. Mariana Is.575781,5340.0-17.940.83.1100.00.0Century Ins Group 58.6DB Ins US Group

22.9

Grand Total

1,138$64,402,425100.07.174.06.282.117.9Progressive Ins Group 15.1Travelers Group 5.

3

No of

Cos

2022

Rank

2023

Rank

State

Market Share

DDCCE

2

Premium

% Change

% of

Grand

TotalALR

1

Leading Writer

%

Market

ShareSecond Leader

%

Market

Share

Direct

Premiums

Written

BEST’S REVIEW

•

OCTOBER 

Best’s Rankings: Auto

Modelers’ Loss Estimates Vary,

44

Impacted by Long-Term Effects

More sophisticated risk assessment models have become available in recent

years, and modelers are often quick to issue loss estimates following a

catastrophic event.

by Anthony Bellano

s the U.S. property/casualty insurance sectors

move through another hurricane season, the

only thing more certain than losses following

storms is the barrage of loss estimates issued by

a plethora of modelers, brokers and reinsurance

intermediaries attempting to predict the future.

Much like analysts who correctly predict the

direction of stocks, modelers with correct forecasts

can help build their competitive standing and

client relationships. These modelers often publish

estimates that vary from each other and are also

impacted by long-term factors such as litigation.

More than three decades ago, loss forecasting broke

into public consciousness following Hurricane Andrew,

which hit the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana.

Before Andrew struck in 1992, risk modeler Karen

Clark estimated that a major hurricane hitting the

Miami area could result in insured losses exceeding $13

billion, according to Dan Ward, senior director of model

development at Karen Clark & Co. This prediction

surprised many at the time, as it significantly surpassed

the industry’s expectations and historical loss data.

A

Anthony Bellano

is an associate editor. He can be reached at

anthony.bellano@ambest.com.

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When Hurricane Andrew made landfall,

the actual insured losses were indeed around

$15.5 billion, validating Clark’s predictions and

demonstrating the accuracy and importance

of advanced catastrophe modeling. This event

highlighted the need for the insurance industry to

adopt more sophisticated risk assessment models and

reconsider exposure to catastrophic events.

Now modelers are often quick to issue loss

estimates following a catastrophic event such as a

hurricane. A look at selected hurricanes in recent

years shows early estimates are often similar to

competitors’ but can also vary, and they can fall

short because of longer-term developments.

Hurricane Idalia (2023):

$1.5 billion in total

insured losses largely in the southeastern United

States

• CoreLogic estimate:

$1.9 billion

• Gallagher Re estimate:

low single-digit billions

of dollars range

• KCC estimate:

$2.2 billion

• RMS estimate:

$3 billion-$5 billion, with a

best-guess estimate of $3.5 billion

• Verisk estimate:

$2.5 billion-$4 billion

Catastrophes

“There’s a real lack of data for how

many properties are insured for flood in

different locations, so estimating what

part of the total damage is going to be

insured really adds a whole new layer of

complication to the process.”

Dan Ward

Karen Clark & Co.

46

quite close to the actual loss for the event.”

Two of the more challenging hurricanes were Ida

and Harvey, mostly because losses were driven up by

inland flooding, Ward said.

“Inland flooding is a challenging peril to model

in real time compared to wind,” Ward said. “There’s

a real lack of data for how many properties are

insured for flood in different locations, so estimating

what part of the total damage is going to be insured

really adds a whole new layer of complication to the

process.”

Joe Cleveland, director of consulting and client

services at Verisk Extreme Event Solutions, said

that in the case of Ida specifically, flooding was

spread out over a wide area, and it wasn’t consistent

throughout.

“There are hot spots,” Cleveland said. “Any kind

of wrong assumption in those hot spots can change

what the loss is. If something’s off a little bit in

hurricane or earthquake modeling, it’s not going to

make a big difference. If something’s off a little bit

in modeling a flood, you can see a big change in the

loss estimate. There’s more potential for misses.”

Here’s a breakdown of varying projections for

Hurricane Ida (2021)

, which had $41 billion in

total insured losses in Cuba, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Alabama and the northeastern United States:

• Aon estimate:

Double-digit billions of dollars range

• BMS Group estimate:

$10 billion or more

• CoreLogic estimate:

$21 billion

• KCC estimate:

$18 billion

• RMS estimate:

$31 billion-$44 billion

• Verisk estimate:

$17 billion-$25 billion

And for

Hurricane

Harvey (2017)

, which saw $38

billion in total insured losses in Texas and Louisiana:

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• CoreLogic estimate:

$1 billion-$2 billion of

residential wind losses for private insurers and

less than $500 million from flood

• KCC estimate:

$15.4 billion

• RMS estimate:

$35 billion-$40 billion

• Verisk estimate:

$65 billion-$75 billion

CoreLogic’s Schneyer said Hurricane Beryl,

which wreaked havoc in the Caribbean and Texas

in late June and early July, had been difficult to

forecast. He said geographical and size distribution

of policy terms, particularly deductibles, especially

when modeled damages are lighter, add a layer of

uncertainty when putting together models.

“CoreLogic estimated that Hurricane Beryl gross

or insured wind losses in Texas would be between

$2.5 billion and $3.5 billion,” Schneyer said. “The

range accounts for the uncertainty in how much of

the losses would be passed on to insurance providers.”

Hurricane Irma, which struck seven years ago, may

have had the greatest variance from initial estimates

as attorneys and contractors drove up losses over the

long term, with claims being filed for years afterward.

Subsequent changes in Florida legislation around

assignment of benefits and one-way attorney fees

make it less likely for costs to increase over as long a

period of time anymore, Schneyer said.

Here’s how the estimates compare to the final

number of $42 billion in insured losses for

Hurricane Irma (2017)

, which caused widespread

damage in the northeastern Caribbean and the

Florida Keys:

• CoreLogic estimate:

$27 billion

• KCC estimate:

$25 billion

• RMS estimate:

$55 billion

• Verisk estimate:

$20 billion-$40 billion

Catastrophes